A Cloudier Picture of Ice-Albedo Feedback in CMIP6 Models

نویسندگان

چکیده

Increased solar absorption is an important driver of Arctic Amplification, the interconnected set processes and feedbacks by which temperatures respond more rapidly than global to climate forcing. The amount sunlight absorbed in strongly modulated seasonal ice snow cover. Sea declines shorter periods cover recent decades have increased absorption, amplifying local warming relative planet as a whole. However, this albedo feedback would be substantially larger absence ubiquitous cloud that exists throughout region. Clouds been observed mask effects reduced surface slow emergence secular trends net absorption. Applying analogous metrics several models from 6 th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find ambiguity influence clouds on predicted has previous generation despite better agreement with sensitivity sea variations. responses loss are stronger CMIP6 CMIP5 all summer months. This agrees observations, but still slightly underestimate changes observations. Never-the-less, nearly predict now absorbing radiation at start century, consistent In fact, many simulate too strong internal variability, spread since CMIP5. uncertainty can traced how natural forced variations While agreed observations delay trends, about half suggest accelerate their variability. Isolating atmospheric contributions total reflection suggests diverging behavior may linked latest models.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Frontiers in Earth Science

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2296-6463']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.769844